#4thmodernDrachma

Wow, January nonfarm payrolls rose by 243,000….that was quite a bit above expectations. this was backed up with a decent non man ISM. So all is rosey, The Fed statement writers already rushing to find the Tippex! no longer will rates be at these low levels til 2014, QE3 Ha. Obama may even get another term in office.

 All this positive sentiment led to a substantial down move in the long end with 30s and 10s bearing the brunt of all this new found optimism. In Europe, German 2s10s reflected this with a cracking break out of the 412.30 to 413.00 range to the upside reaching as hi as 413.50.

However; this weekend the Greeks have managed to piss on everybody’s chips by refusing to accept the austerity measures required to get their bailout package.  Juncker appears to have given up….. “If we determine that it’s all going wrong in Greece” then no new program & “a declaration of bankruptcy” in March.

Cool, so lets sell 2s10s now (short from 413.25) and run it back back below 412.85, my stop above is 413.36. This was the support area from friday evening  when we made the hi around 413.50. If the talks do break down today then i’m more likely to add to the position regardless of where it is trading coz its only going one way if this is the case.

I’m hearing rumours that final decision will be made at 10 GMT today…..Cheap holidays to Greece here we come! #2Drachmaforapint!

 

Later on in the week we have ECB an UK rate announcements, todays outcome could make for a very interesting ECB.

 

This morning was Porridge for brekky and a second helping of Hybrid for the train journey in….”I choose noise” .   By the way,  the trains had no problems this morning regardless of the weather….could we as a nation be getting capable of dealing with this sort of stuff? Bring on the Olympics

 

Be Lucky

L

 

 

#NFP Friday

Time is up, PSI agreement will be announced today…..or maybe put off for another week? attention will turn to OSI and the IIF will want to see the ECB accepting similar losses in order for Greece to achieve sustainable debt ratios. Can we get the IOC and FIFA or UEFA involved too?

This wouldn’t of happened if Sepp Blatter was in charge of the ECB….

China’s Wen considering greater involvement in EFSF and ESM stabilization funds aided the turn around from what was looking like a mild risk off day. All indices in the red, EURUSD below 131 and bunds marching towards the 140 (hi of 139.79) area in the morning. So once Wen’s comments where out everything turned around.The bund down move finally ended at 138.88 before drifting back to the 139.30 area.The euro peaked at just above 132 Whole lot of movement without actually going anywhere.

Attenetion will turn stateside briefly today with the fun that is Non Farm Payrolls.  I’ve always liked the irrational price behaviour of the markets over this data especially when way out of line……fingers crossed. I’m going for a boring 150k though.

As the 5th week of the new year comes to an end I ask myself, “when will the volume comeback” . Dont the banks play anymore, where do all these bank prop traders go once they are laid off? cant they set up their own hedge funds or turn up at a local arcade to punt? These markets are moving in strange ways if you look too closely at them. Seems like only the hi frequency algos are playing at the mo…..and they’re just stoopid. Am i just jealous, my attempts to join this gang is failing dramatically as i struggle to teach myself visual basic and some sort of c programming. B0ll0x to that. Excel to my xtrader will have to do.  

My mix tape for the train journey in this morning was the Hybrid album “Disappear here”….love it so much i’m ignoring my new colleagues and still listening to it  now as i type. I like Hybrid, they are the second best thing to come out of Wales…..

I’ve filled the order book with Autotrader orders so i think i’ll now close my eyes until my trading dinger goes off.

off to folly’s for non farm brekky today too so dont intend on participating in any trading that will result in me having a position at 9:30!

 The euro/german 2s10s bouncing along the bottom again at the mo, reluctant to go long here this time as i fear a slight squaring up of the #riskon(im gonner get it trending on twitter) trades into NFP will mean much lower. Support arount 411.75 upside resistance around 412.90/413.00. resolution to PSI and or strong nfp could see that resistance blown through. Only a complete fail by the IIF on PSI will see 2s10s break support below 411.75 i think…..but what do i know?

Be lucky

L

New beginnings

Ok, so new year, new trading firm and slightly different approach to the markets.
I trade mostly financial instruments in the futures space. Looking to profit from the order flow disparities accross the curves in bonds and stirs in europe, u.k. and u.s. My time frame is quite short….and getting shorter by the day!
This will be me thinking out loud and documenting my thoughts for my own research/anecdotal purposes.
The grammer will be poor and sometimes my observations will be incorrect but hey I’ll get better as i go along. (i think)

Today is the 2nd of feb…My Dads 60th. Happy birthday pops.
I had my classical mix tape for the train journey this morning, which was nice. A little Gustav Holst mixed with Dvorak and Prokofiev thrown in. Sometimes i like to start the day peacefully. The whiff of warm croissant at fenchurch st this morning got to me. 2 chocolate ones from tesco polished off before 6:30. Not good!

Now to the analysis…..
Well more rumours about PSI agreement on Greek haircuts lastnight proved to be hullabuloo. Another day goes by with a promise of “just the small print to be considered”. Rumours of a massive LTRO of 1 trillion added buying impetus to the Euribor, whilst German bonds flirted with the idea of greek bailout positivity. This all amounts to short end support, long end weakness. Risk on trades as eurusd rallied above 132 and indices all posting healthy 100 point gains. Its just that the bunds really dont look convincing going down at the mo, maybe we just need confirmation of the PSI agreement for the real shank.

Tip for the day, buy dips in 2s10s at 5 to 1 ratio i have 412.65 as a decent area to go long with 412.48ish being the bottom of the current uptrend.
Teds have been very strong for the past week with over a 20 tick rally in the past 3 days. Currently there is not enough noise here to entice me to participate, but if i had a gun put to my head i’d go short small size here. I think there could be a nice 10 tick give back in it.
bor vs bobl on the other hand has been choppy enough to nip in and out of. but mustnt get stubborn. if i have a position either way for any serious amount of time say 4 hours then get out at best!

As my skills with this thing get better I will post interesting charts…..and maybe my pnl as i go.

be lucky